Introduction
The United States of America is a very complicated country. Although I have spent over 20 years of my life in that country, I am frequently surprised and puzzled by events in that country. This essay is an attempt to understand the 2020 elections which have been won by President-elect Joe Biden and Vice-President-elect Kamala Harris. I should add that President Donald Trump has not conceded defeat and intends to challenge the results in the courts.
Blue States and Red States
The Democratic Party is represented by the colour blue. The Republican Party is represented by the colour red. A very striking feature of the election result is that the three states on the West Coast and the 10 states on the Northeast Coast are blue states. The people on the two coasts tend to be better educated, more cosmopolitan and liberal. Most of them voted for the Democratic Party.
Why is the South Coloured Red?
Another striking feature is that most of the states in the South, which were part of the confederacy during the Civil War, are red states. Georgia is the only exception to the rule. Historically, the southern states were blue states. However, when Presidents John F Kennedy and Lyndon B Johnson decided to end segregation in the South, and introduced the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act, the South felt betrayed by the Democratic Party. As a result, many switched their allegiance to the Republican Party. I think the Republican Party, the party of Abraham Lincoln, has forgotten his legacy and become the champion of white voters over others.
Why are most of the states between the two coasts are red states?
It is also very striking that most of the states between the two coasts are red states. Is there an explanation for the phenomenon? I think there is. The people who live in the middle of the country tend to be more conservative than those living on the two coasts. They also tend to be more religious. Many of the Americans who live in rural America and in the west tend to own guns and hunt for recreation. The Republican Party has weaponised Christianity against the Democratic Party. It has also embraced the National Rifle Association and the gun lobby. To understand this better, please read Joe Bageant’s excellent book, Hunting with Jesus.
Urban and Rural Voters
There is another interesting phenomenon. It is the political divide between the voters living in cities who tend to vote for the Democratic Party, and the suburban and rural voters who tend to vote for the Republican Party. We saw the same divide in the British Brexit referendum. This could be explained by the fact that people who live in cities tend to be more liberal than those who live in the suburbs and rural areas.
The Education Divide
Education is another divisive factor. There appears to be a political divide between white college-educated voters and non-college-educated white voters. Those with college degrees tend to vote for the Democratic Party and those without tend to vote for the Republican Party. I think the explanation is that those who have had the benefit of a university education tend to be more liberal than those who do not.
The White Working Class
Until the 2016 Presidential Election, neither party had focused on the white working-class voters. Historically, the Democratic Party was the champion of the working class. The party made the mistake of taking this constituency for granted. Some of the party’s leaders, like Hillary Clinton, also became elitist and lost touch with this constituency. In 2016, President Trump saw the opportunity to be their champion and the Republican Party succeeded in capturing the support of white working-class voters. To understand this development better, I recommend two excellent books: Hillbilly Elegy by J D Vance and the White Working Class by Joan C Williams.
White Voters and Black Voters
There is also a racial divide in the behaviour of the voters. By a big majority, black voters voted for Biden. Most Asian Americans, Hispanic-Americans and Native Americans also voted for him. However, in Florida, there were two groups of Hispanic-Americans who voted for Trump. These were the Cuban-Americans who were ideologically anti-left and the Venezuelan-Americans who were grateful to Trump for his opposition to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In the case of white voters, especially male white voters, a majority voted for Trump. A majority of white female voters voted for Biden.
The Gender Divide
There is also a gender divide in the voting behaviour of male and female voters. A higher percentage of women voters than men take part in presidential elections. Since 1980, according to the Pew Research Center, there has been about a 4 percent gap in voter turnout between men and women. More women also voted for the Democratic Party. In 2018 and 2019, about 56 percent of registered women voters identified themselves as Democrats or leaning towards them whereas only 38 percent of such voters identified themselves as Republicans or leaning towards them.
The Young Voters
Who did young voters below the age of 30 vote for? This group of voters constitutes 17 percent of the electorate. According to www.vox.com, 53 percent of young voters cast their ballots this year. But they did not vote as a bloc. A slight majority of young male voters voted for Trump. A big majority of young female voters voted for Biden. Youth of colour voted overwhelmingly for Biden. According to a recent report by the Tufts Tisch College, the youth vote was one of the factors which powered Biden to victory.
A Divided America
Thirty years ago, America was a different country. In the old America, the two political parties did not see each other as enemies, but as competitors. Their leaders consulted frequently and were often able to achieve a consensus on contentious issues. In those days, there was agreement to put nation before party and party before self.
I recall for example, that Democrat Senator Biden and Republican Senator Richard Luger would alternate as Chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee, depending on which party had a majority in the Senate. The two men were friends and were able to work closely together.
To be sure, there were ideological differences between the two parties. The Republican Party stood for free trade and the Democratic Party was more protectionist. The Democratic Party tended to give a higher priority to democracy and human rights in its foreign policy agenda. The differences were, however, of degree rather than kind. There were more commonalities between them than differences.
In the recent past, however, some American leaders have seemed to put self before party and party before nation.
Over the past 30 years, America has become more polarised and divided. The paradigm shift probably began with Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Republican who viewed the Democratic Party as enemy and advocated confrontation over compromise. The relations between the two parties have become toxic and each views the other as the enemy of the people.
The Future
Joe Biden is a healer and unifier. We must wish him success in uniting a deeply divided nation. I hope the Republicans in Congress will not rebuff him as they did then-President Barack Obama. The Democratic and Republican parties must put aside their petty differences to tackle the monumental challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic recession, climate change, the formulation of a new foreign policy and the just demands of Black Americans for equality and justice.
The election of Kamala Harris as Vice-President is historical in three ways. She will be the first woman, the first Black American and the first Asian-American to hold that high office. She will be a tremendous asset to President-elect Biden.
I have a final message to my friends in the Democratic and the Republican Parties: America leads best abroad when she is united at home.
Professor Tommy Koh is rector of Tembusu College and Special Adviser at the Institute of Policy Studies, National University of Singapore.
Top photo from Unsplash.