The second forum on the Singapore General Election 2020 was held on 8 October. Dr Carol Soon, Dr Natalie Pang and Associate Professor Zhang Weiyu presented findings from an IPS study which surveyed 2,000 voters on their media use, political traits and voting behaviour during GE 2020. Mr Chua Chin Hon, Chief Data Analyst at Analytix Labs, presented an analysis of social media posts leading up to the election.
The survey, which was also conducted after the general election found that more voters in GE 2020 turned to the Internet to keep themselves informed, while mainstream media such as print newspapers and radio became less important sources of news.
Online website of Singapore mass media mattered more to people who voted for the People’s Action Party (PAP), whereas engaging with political parties via social networking sites and their websites mattered more for those who voted for the Opposition.
Dr Soon, Head, Society and Culture Department and Senior Research Fellow at IPS, who was also the lead researcher of the survey team, said that social networking sites such as Facebook and Instagram, and instant messaging (IM) platforms such as WhatsApp and Telegram, were the two most common ways for political engagement.
The “Boomer” generation — respondents aged 56 years old and above — used IM the most to learn about and interact with political parties and candidates. Given the ubiquitous use of IM platforms across all age groups, Dr Soon suggested that it was a “generational-neutral medium” that could help close the digital divide in terms of political engagement.
From the survey findings, Dr Pang, Senior Lecturer at the Department of Communications and New Media at the National University of Singapore (NUS) observed that social media was significant in shaping how Singaporeans engaged with the election. In particular, younger voters who found mainstream media untrustworthy were more likely to express their opinions on social media. She also found that if respondents trusted their interpersonal communications on IM platforms, they were more likely to turn to these networks for information.
Associate Professor Zhang, from the Department of Communications and New Media at NUS, used the survey findings to conduct an analysis of swing voters. She found that respondents who voted for the PAP in GE 2015 but swung towards the Opposition in GE 2020 were mostly male, politically active and preferred to have alternative views in Parliament. On the other hand, voters who swung from the Opposition to the PAP in GE 2020 were politically uninterested and inactive. She also cautioned that these findings were based on a small group of respondents, as not many were willing to indicate whom they had voted for during the election.
Mr Chua found that political parties did not pay sufficient attention to social media signals, such as the desensitisation towards COVID-19, the Ivan Lim incident, Workers’ Party’s “Sengkang surge”, and the weakening interest in the PAP’s message on jobs and economy. He said that parties should go beyond content creation and distribution to harnessing the insights from online sentiments and engagement. And while he acknowledged that there was no proven causal link between social media data and voting behaviour, parties which can recognise and respond to social media signals could have a considerable advantage during the hustings.
Responding to a question on the role of IM platforms gaining prominence in an election, Dr Soon said a wide variety of content was shared on these platforms, with the most interesting being citizen-generated content such as memes and petitions. However, Dr Pang and Mr Chua highlighted the challenges in studying these platforms as they are closed and private networks.
Dr Soon noted that during the campaign period, the Government acted quickly to address contentious information. And while the survey did not specifically ask respondents about what they thought of the Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (POFMA), they were asked to rate their satisfaction on how the Government has managed deliberate online falsehoods. The findings showed a relatively split response — 40 per cent of respondents were ambivalent, 30 per cent said that they were satisfied and 30 per cent were not satisfied.
In their closing comments, Mr Chua said he hoped to see political parties make more use of data analytic tools during the campaign period.
A/P Zhang felt that consuming online content could lead to individuals wanting more alternative views in Parliament. Mr Tan Tarn How, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow of IPS and moderator of the forum, agreed and said that it was possible, as long as the online content came from credible voices.
Dr Pang and Dr Soon said they were heartened by the increasing trend of voters expressing their political opinions on social media. Dr Soon gave the example of youths who used their Instagram platforms to educate and mobilise one another. Dr Pang encouraged everyone to think about how they can engage with social media in an informed and civil way, especially when polarising views are involved.
This is the second forum on the Singapore General Election 2020. The final forum on 22 October will feature politicians from the People’s Action Party, Workers’ Party and Progress Singapore Party sharing their vision and plans as they work towards the next general election.