SINGAPORE: The die has been cast. We now know what the electoral boundaries will look like for Singapore’s upcoming General Election, which has to be held by the end of November.
The report released on Tuesday (Mar 11) surprised many, with the redrawing of boundaries more extensive than expected. The Electoral Boundaries Review Committee (EBRC) noted that while the total number of electors has increased, the growth was not evenly distributed across various electoral districts.
Consequently, changes were made to reflect these demographic shifts. These changes mean that voters will see new constituency boundaries as well as renamed constituencies.
For example, a voter previously in Jurong Group Representation Constituency (GRC) might now instead be in West Coast-Jurong West GRC, Jurong East-Bukit Batok GRC, Jurong Central SMC, or even Holland-Bukit Timah GRC.
But does that mean that voting patterns will change completely this time round? The answer is not a straightforward yes or no.
CHANGES IN CANDIDATES AND PARTIES
For the coming election, only nine out of 31 constituencies have their boundaries intact from GE2020.
Most people, especially those who have been impacted by the boundary changes, will be presented with different candidates compared to 2020, from both the incumbent and opposition sides. Who voters will see on the ground engaging with them, as well as the parties that will be featured on their ballot paper can be markedly different.
To illustrate, let us think about how things might change for some of the new GRCs, taking the original 2020 constituencies and contests as reference, and assuming that the same opposition parties will still be interested in contesting these areas.
On the People’s Action Party (PAP) side, many incumbent MPs have seen their original constituencies divided, merged or absorbed. Some will need to join new constituencies formed from parts of their previous ones. If candidates are redeployed across the island, voters may find themselves choosing from a different slate of PAP candidates.
For opposition parties, we will see quite the alphabet soup in terms of potential contests, assuming every party has the resources to contest in all the constituencies they did previously.
The West Coast-Jurong West GRC voter might see a PAP-PSP (Progress Singapore Party) contest, or even a PAP-PSP-RDU (Red Dot United) line-up.
For the Jurong East-Bukit Batok GRC voter, possible opposition parties wanting to contest might include PSP, SDP (Singapore Democratic Party) and RDU.
Similar multi-cornered fights might play out in the east and northeast. For example, the new Marine Parade-Braddell Heights GRC would have to contend with the WP (Workers’ Party), SPP (Singapore People’s Party), PPP (People’s Power Party) and PV (Peoples Voice).
The new Punggol GRC and Pasir Ris-Changi GRC will meet with SDA (Singapore Democratic Alliance) and WP.
For voters who are concerned about local municipal issues or have formed bonds with the incumbent MP, a change of the MP in charge of their ward might mean losing a familiar face, which might affect their voting considerations. It could lead them to become more open to the opposition candidates, or they might turn to consider overall national issues instead.
While a preference for the incumbent party might remain, it is likely to lack that human connection formed with the incumbent MP, and perhaps also be weakened by a multi-cornered contest.
A change in the contesting opposition party will also impact voters’ choice. Every opposition party is unique – they each have their own manifesto, views on various issues, and different types of candidates. Hence, voters might draw different conclusions on whether the opposition party contesting in their constituency can measure up to the incumbent.
ELECTION ISSUES ARE NATIONAL
Despite these changes, the election remains a national one. Voters prioritising national issues may not be swayed by boundary shifts and change of line-up, as their considerations will not be too different regardless of one’s constituency.
For this group, the main concerns will likely be tied to whether they believe the incumbent government is doing a good job with national concerns like the economy, job creation and security, housing, and navigating the complex international environment.
They might also look at aspects like the number of opposition MPs in parliament, as well as the quality of opposition in their own constituency as part of the decision-making process for their votes.
When voting decisions are based more on issues than on party affiliation or individual politicians’ appeal, the decision-making process is more likely to remain similar to previous elections.
What will make a difference would be the incumbent’s performance in government so far, as well as the manifestos presented by opposition parties as a proxy for their potential in office.
The changes to electoral boundaries will impact voters if they have different political parties to choose from on Polling Day.
However, voter concerns are not that different across the country, so we will probably see different political parties campaign on similar topics. What remains to be seen would be the final candidate line-ups and what they can bring to the table.
Teo Kay Key is Research Fellow at IPS Social Lab at the Institute of Policy Studies.
This piece was first published in CNA on 14 March 2025.
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